Ukraine, Russia and the West

Vladimir Putin and Russia invaded the sovereign and independent state of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The war has already lasted over 30 months and the human carnage and property destruction has been horrible. Estimates vary, but the consensus is that Russia has suffered over 500,000 casualties with over 250,000 dead. Ukrainian casualties are in the same range. Ukrainian civilian casualties are high, particularly from Russia’s systematic and sustained violations of the Laws of War in the early stages of the conflict. Putin failed to achieve his goals, the quick decapitation of the Ukrainian regime and the subsuming of the Ukrainian state into Russia. The Ukrainian military has fought with courage and intelligence and the West, led by the United States, has provided critical military and economic aid. Today, Putin holds about 18% of Ukrainian territory. This includes the Crimean peninsula which they illegally annexed in 2014. Ukraine recently conducted a military operation in Russia itself and holds a 500 square mile area. It is a war of attrition with no near term prospect of a military “victory” for either side. “Peace” negotiations have gone absolutely nowhere since Russia basically wants Ukraine to surrender and Ukraine want to regain all its occupied territory. No identifiable middle ground in that scenario. It is appropriate to assess how we got here and realistically evaluate potential endgames. Will Ukraine tire- will the West remain steadfast in the current political environment - these are pressing questions. The Israel- Hamas conflict in Gaza is garnering more media attention, but the world should not lose sight of the long term consequences of what ultimately happens in Ukraine. Ukraine is no longer just a big territory on the “Risk” game map: it has real life strategic significance. A successful conclusion for Ukraine and a “defeat” of Russia’s ambitions is critical to long term international stability. How should we define “success”? What is the proper role of the United States and NATO? Where do China and the Global south fit in under a future global structure? Does international law have staying power? Does the human rights movement have any standing in this realpolitik world?

What was Putin thinking when he commenced this “special military operation” into Ukraine? How can he argue his actions have any legitimacy? Fortunately, he explicitly provided his reasoning prior to the invasion and has restated his views on multiple occasions during the war. He is transparent in his historical narrative on the Russia- Ukraine relationship. When announcing the invasion, he declared that Ukraine is an “inalienable” part of Russian history, culture and spiritual space. Ukrainian history is Russian history. Ukrainians are simply “Little Russians.” Ukraine does not have a separate identity and is not a legitimate nation-state. Russia is Ukraine’s proper homeland. The current Ukrainian leadership are Neo-nazis who are attempting to detach Ukraine from it proper place- under the loving care of the Russian bear. Ukraine is not acting independently- they are an instrument of the United States and America’s malevolent long term policy goal is surrounding and Mother Russia. He blames Lenin for unwisely giving Ukraine status as a Soviet Republic in 1922. He does not accept Ukraine’s decision to become an independent country in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union. He blames Gorbachev for that historical error. Basically, classifying Ukraine as an independent nation is a “big mistake” and it is his duty to put things back in proper order. The “Orange Revolution” in 2006 and the “Maidan Revolution” in 2014 - both which firmly put Ukraine on a path to economic and political integration with the West were plots hatched by the Bush and Obama Administrations. The West is making Ukraine a satellite and the goal is to overwhelm Russia’s sphere of influence with Western dollars and technology. Putin believes it is critical to his legacy that he not allow this Ukrainian separation from Russia to occur and it is his obligation to reject this narrative through force.

Whew!! A lot there! Putin’s historical perspective is mostly fantasy, definitely distorted, but very appealing to Russian nationalists bitter about Russia’s reduced standing in the world since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Heck, they miss the Russian empire and Putin is the modern Czar. The war remains relatively popular in Russia and Putin continues to be the driving political actor. This is HIS war. He OWNS it. We need to look behind the curtain and do a mini history lesson on Ukraine, its relationship with Russia, the rivalry with the West and the underlying political dimensions to the conflict.

FACT ONE: Ukraine has only been an independent country since 1991- only 33 years. A nation in its infancy. Prior to 1991, Ukraine was a Republic in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). In 1991, the Soviet Union ceased to exist. Ukraine then held national referendum and 90% of the voters (heavy turnout) voted to become an independent state and explicitly rejected the option of being unified or affiliated with the Russian Federation. All regions of Ukraine voted for independence, including the eastern Russian speaking provinces currently occupied by Russian forces and annexed by Russia in 2022. Ukraine was created democratically and its borders were recognised by the global community, including Russia. In 1994, the Budapest Memorandum signed by Ukraine, Russia and the major powers recognised Ukraine’ permanent borders in exchange for Ukraine giving up the Soviet era nuclear weapons that were stationed on its soil. It is indisputable that Ukraine is a sovereign nation entitled to the protections granted to such states under the United Nations Charter. The most fundamental clause in that charter is that borders cannot be changed by force. Putin, in addition to an aggressive bad faith reading of history, has violated the charter. This explains why 130 plus nations condemned the invasion.

FACT TWO: Although 33 years of nationhood is a blink of the eye in the span of world history, Ukraine has a long nationalist narrative. The country was not created out of whole cloth in 1991. Ukrainian attempts to establish an independent political entity go back to the late 1700’s. The Yellow and Blue Ukrainian flag we see today was adopted in 1848. Ukrainian nationalism is based on distinct Ukrainian culture- with a rich history of its own language, literature, music, art, theatre, religion and educational system. Statues of Ukrainian leaders of the past are all over Kiev. They have their own Orthodox Christian Branch.

FACT THREE: Nationalist aspirations were longstanding, but unfulfilled until 1991. Why? As they say, it is complicated. What we describe as Ukraine today has a thousand year history of changing borders, religion, people and empires. Ukraine has been intertwined with Russia for centuries, but current Ukrainian territory has also been part of Poland, the Polish- Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Ottoman Empire and the Austro- Hungarian empire. Putin’s argument that Ukraine has always been part and parcel of Russia is not correct. Kiev was originally founded by the Vikings. Ukraine has a rich geography, with rich farmland, huge forests and deep maritime ports on the Black Sea. It is a menagerie of peoples- very multi- ethnic. Prior to World War II, it had one of the largest Jewish populations in the world. The historical narrative is multi- layered.

FACT FOUR: 20th century Ukrainian history is head spinning, sobering, dark, sad and miserable. Ukraine has not been favoured by its location, its neighbours, competing ideologies or maniacal dictators. When WWI began in 1914, current Ukraine was divided between the Russian Empire and the Austro-Hungarian Empire. When WWI ended in 1918 those empires had entered the dustbin of history - GONE! From 1917-1922 Ukrainian nationalists made 4 separate attempts to establish itself as an independent country. They failed, partly based on their own incompetence and internal divisions and also because they were unable to convince the great powers at the Versailles “Peace” conference that they merited an independent state. Instead after mucho fighting and thousands of deaths, today’s western Ukraine became part of Poland and the eastern part of Ukraine became a Republic in the Soviet Union. Ukraine stayed in that form until WWII began in 1939. The Germans and the Soviets invaded Poland and defeated the Poles. The Soviets incorporated the conquered Polish territory under their control into Ukraine. The Germans then invaded the Soviet Union in 1941, quickly conquered Ukraine and occupied Ukraine until the end of 1943. WWII was horrific for Ukraine. 7 million dead including 2 million Jews. Bloodlands is now the term of art to describe Ukraine from 1922 to 1945. Just AWFUL! Beginning in 1945, Ukraine resumed its status as a Republic in the Soviet Union. It actually became a founding member of the United Nations at the insistence of Stalin. So much for Putin’s argument that Ukraine did not have a separate identity. Ukraine stayed in the Soviet Union until 1991.

FACT FIVE: One of Putin’s arguments is that Ukraine is part of the Russian family- little brothers really! This suggests a warm and close relationship, based on mutual respect and affection. Why would Ukraine choose to go its own way in 1991? Well, the Soviet leadership treatment of Ukraine from 1922 to 1991 was frequently brutal- the Russians were abusive fathers if you want to stick with the family construct. Stalin understood the threat of Ukrainian nationalism and took affirmative steps to stamp it out. The original Ukrainian leaders in the Bolshevik Revolution were purged, murdered or exiled. 4 MILLION Ukrainians died in the Holdomor- the Great Famine created by Stalin’s insane policies of collectivisation and liquidation of the kulaks (the planter class). Scholars still argue today whether his intent was genocidal. He followed up in the late 1930’s with the Great Terror and the decimation of the military leadership, professionals and academics. The Ukrainians suffered more deaths than any other Republic during this time. The cemeteries and the Gulag were full of Ukrainians leaders, farmers and entrepreneurs. The Great Dictator never trusted the Ukrainians. He thought they were too nationalist and too enamoured with the West. Sound familiar? So perhaps Russia-Ukraine was not one big happy family. The 1991 decision by Ukraine to detach itself from from Russia makes perfect sense in the context of this bloody history. Oh, I almost forgot Chernoybl- the greatest nuclear plant disaster in history. Well, that happened in Ukraine and the Soviet leadership was responsible for that fiasco as well. We must accept that there is a long history of Russian- Ukrainian integration and we should understand why Russia would be upset that Ukraine chose to forge its own path. Ukraine was an important component of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. It was the nation’s breadbasket and an industrial powerhouse. Soviet leaders- Khrushchev, Brezhnev and Gorbachev all lived and or governed in Ukraine at various points in their lives. Khrushchev actually “gave” Crimea to Ukraine at a drunken dinner in 1954. Ukraine was a leader in engineering, weapons development and technology. Zbigniew Brezinski, former US National Security Advisor put it best: “Russia, with Ukraine is a great empire. Russia, without Ukraine is a declining regional power with nuclear weapons.” Putin’s frustration with the loss of control over Ukraine is understandable, but his invasion is indefensible. The core principle here is that Ukraine had a choice and they made it. They have doubled down on their choice since 2004 by applying for membership in the European Union and NATO.

FACT SIX: The 2022 invasion was a shocking violation of the UN Charter. Borders are sacrosanct and cannot be changed by force. The attack itself was a violation of international law and Russia’s military tactics reach the level of war crimes because they intentionally target civilians and are indiscriminate and disproportionate in their targeting of towns, villages and cities. They kidnapped Ukrainian children and transported them to Russia. The ICC has indicted Putin and other Russian leaders. The global community should not wear blinders here. Putin is a thug. He suppresses and kills political opponents internally and interferes with elections in other countries. He has a contempt for the truth and aggressively markets misinformation and disinformation. He has contempt for international law and despises western democracy, the rule of law and liberal ideals. He cannot prevail and Western leaders who describe him as a “genius”, “smart” and “shrewd” are unfit and unqualified to hold public office. They are, to borrow a term from Lenin, “useful idiots.” Guess who I am referring to here!

FACT SEVEN: The war is a stalemate. What is the endgame? American and European military, economic and political support has been critical for Ukraine’s survival and such aid will remain necessary for the foreseeable future. Sanctions against Russia must remain in place. We must upgrade Ukraine’s air defences, improve their attack capability and allow them to use these weapons to hit Russian supply lines in Russia itself. The Ukrainians must invest in their own military manufacturing capacity so they are not so dependent on the US. They must strengthen their political institutions which will expedite their EU application. Keep NATO on the table, but provide other security guarantees to Ukraine in terms of locked in future aid- similar to our arrangement with Israel. Putin must be convinced he cannot win a total victory. We should also give serious consideration to enacting legislation to confiscate 300 billion of frozen Russian bank reserves for the rebuilding of Ukraine. The endgame is that Putin agrees to negotiate and accepts what is realistic. What is realistic must be a strategic defeat for him. His main fear was a Ukraine linked permanently to the West. A Ukraine in the EU and with permanent links to the Western security structure is exactly the opposite of what he wanted to happen here. If Ukraine has a future on those terms, they will have to consider territorial losses. Very hard to see how they regain the territory currently in Russian hands- certainly not in the short term The shape of the outcome will be their call, but we should use our leverage wisely. This is a test of wills. Remember, the countries allied with Ukraine have a GDP of 63 trillion. Russia has a GDP of 1.9 trillion. We have the resources and Putin knows it. Let’s not give him any gifts through stupidity and callowness.