Israel and Hamas: Post 3
Photo by Emad El Byed on Unsplash
It has now been three weeks since the barbaric Hamas attack on Israel. The location of 99% of the hostages remains unknown. The Israeli funerals for loved ones have been conducted. I note Netanyahu failed to attend any of them – strange fellow! Cold! After two weeks of aggressive airstrikes, artillery and rocket attacks, the Israelis have begun their land invasion of Gaza. Two million Palestinians await them and the vast majority of have no strong connection to Hamas. The defense barrier created by Hamas is based on a sophisticated tunnel system, hit-and-run attacks and a superior knowledge of the terrain. They will not hesitate to use civilians as human shields and the Israelis insist that Hamas military infrastructure is embedded in Palestinian schools and healthcare facilities. Again human rights debates are on the horizon. How can Israel complete its mission without violating the laws of war? Indiscriminate and disproportionate military strikes will inevitably put Palestinian civilians at risk. Will the world stomach the death toll? Most importantly, will the United States?
My first posting on the war also identified the other significant risk creating sleepless nights for American policy makers – the legitimate possibility the conflict will spread beyond Gaza and lead to a regional war. The global stakes will be magnified in that event. What are the sources of the risk and what is the likelihood the lid will blow off and a wider conflagration occurs?
The most immediate concern is Hezbollah. Who are they? Again, I fear most Americans have no clue. Hezbollah is an Islamic militant group based in Lebanon. They are Shia Muslims and base their philosophy on the Islamic Republic of Ayatollah Khomenei’s Iran. They were formed in the 1980s as a reaction to Israel's invasion of Lebanon. Other than Iran, their great friend is Bashir Assad in Syria. Do you like them so far? Their founding manifesto called for the elimination of the State of Israel and deportation of all Jews from the Middle East to Europe. They are fierce holocaust deniers and their media outlets, TV, print and social media routinely and regularly publish and endorse every crazy antisemitic conspiracy theory known to man. They also oppose any American or European presence in the Middle East, branding them as corrupt colonial powers with no moral authority or any legitimate strategic interest in the region.
Why is HEZBOLLAH dangerous? They are heavily armed and receive military training, weapons and enormous financial support from Iran. They have approximately 65,000 fighters – most based in southern Lebanon. They possess 150,000 missiles, both long range in short range. They can strike Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. They have sophisticated anti-aircraft and anti-tank capabilities. They have drones and western intelligence agencies suspect they may have a chemical and biological weapons program. Israel says they are the most well armed guerrilla group in the world. They have a history of conflict with Israel, including a 34 day war in 2006. They were already causing problems for Israel prior to the October Hamas attack. Hezbollah has incrementally increased rocket and drone attacks into northern Israel since October 7. 200,000 Israelis have been relocated to the central part of the country. Hezbollah is shrinking Israel's footprint within its own borders already. They have the capacity to create a second northern front in the war against Israel. The involvement of Hezbollah increases the possibility that Iran will Intervene on their behalf. The involvement of Iran in a military exchange in the region increases the chances the United States would engage in support of Israel. Bingo – there is your regional war involving global powers.
What is the likelihood this scenario could actually occur? My gut instinct is that both Hezbollah and Iran would like to avoid a full-scale war war with Israel. Israel has the ability to inflict a high cost in any military conflict. The Sunni Arab states – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Egypt and Jordan hate Hezbollah with a passion and will certainly communicate to them the risks of escalating the Gaza conflict. So – I believe a drastic expansion of the conflict is unlikely for now- with one key proviso. If Israel's military campaign results in significant and high profile Palestinian civilian casualties the strategic dynamic could change. Pressure from the “street “could cause Iran and Hezbollah to conclude the only way to preserve their credibility is to fight Israel now. Again – the focus must be on HOW Israel conducts its Gaza military operation. Massive civilian casualties and a total societal collapse in Gaza could precipitate a broader conflict. Cooler heads are required and my confidence in Netanyahu not overstepping - and even ignoring American urge for caution is not high.
The other primary locus of a possible widening of the war is the West Bank. The Palestinians living in the West Bank (3 million of them) are governed by the Palestinian Authority but remain subject to Israel security based incursions on a regular basis. Watch the show “FAUDA” to catch a glimpse of that picture. The Palestinian Authority hates Hamas and would like to resume control of Gaza if and when Hamas is eliminated. However, in the interim, the Palestinians in the West Bank are seeing family and friends trapped in Gaza, subject to a merciless Israeli military operation. Again, if casualties continue to increase, Palestinians may feel an obligation to up the ante in the West Bank and initiate their own revolt against the Israeli occupation. This is a potential third front. The possibility of the match being lit in the West Bank is increased daily because of the growing civilian casualties in Gaza AND because aggressive Israeli settlers in the West Bank are attacking Palestinian villages without any true response by the Israeli government. Palestinians may choose to defend themselves by engaging in a full scale revolt in the West Bank. It is a genuine risk.
An additional risk is created by nasty Israeli rhetoric. We already addressed the risk that the current military operation could engender a violent response from other actors in the region. But words also matter and right wing Israeli leaders and cabinet members are increasing the tension with their own public statements. One minister said they may need to use nuclear weapons to defeat this existential threat. Another stated that no Palestinians were truly civilians and therefore all Palestinians were legitimate military targets. Palestinians have been described as in "animals" and “Nazis.” Frankly when leaders make incendiary statements, it fans the flames and opens the door for every other lunatic to follow suit. Israel is morally right in its outrage, but grievance and outrage is not a policy. Calmer voices need to step up, describe the ultimate stakes to its citizens, remind the nation of their basic values and adopt a strategy that will dismantle and degrade Hamas military leadership without creating a wider war. Israel was built on humanistic values and they should act consistently with them - even in an unparalleled moment of anger and emotion.
